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п»їSports betting winners and losers: WFT gets huge upset, but it wasn't even biggest NFC East upset win.
The Washington Football Team shocked the world on Monday. They might have even shocked the bettors brave enough to take them on the moneyline.
Washington wasn’t the biggest upset of the season though. That wasn’t even the biggest upset of Week 13.
But the biggest upset of the week was the New York Giants. They won as 10.5-point underdogs at the Seattle Seahawks. That matched the biggest upset of the season. The Las Vegas Raiders’ 40-32 win over the Kansas City Chiefs also came as a 10.5-point underdog.
This has been the year of the underdog in the NFL betting world, but not many huge underdogs have won straight up. Washington and New York got the notable upsets of Week 13. That’ll help get the NFC East a little more respect.
В© Provided by Yahoo! Sports Chase Young of the Washington Football Team celebrates following their 23-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Here are the winners and losers from the sports betting world over the past week:
WINNERS.
Gallery: Where the Big Ten stands in Week 8 power rankings (SMG)
Baylor is a close second. The Bears got an impressive 82-69 win over No. 5 Illinois last week. We were robbed of a Baylor-Gonzaga game last Saturday, which was canceled because of COVID-19 issues. 2020 continues to be awful.
Alabama football: Alabama closed as a 29-point favorite against LSU. It was the biggest point spread a defending champion has faced in 40 years. The line was as high as 30 in some spots.
And Alabama covered. They won 55-17.
Oddsmakers can’t set lines high enough on Alabama. Despite their dominance, the Crimson Tide are 5-2 against the spread, often covering huge numbers. Alabama is about a 31-point favorite over Arkansas this week. It seems crazy to fade them.
LOSERS.
People fading the Jets: Bettors loved the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. They were laying a little more than a touchdown against the New York Jets. The Raiders were one of the top five teams of Week 13, in terms of most bets on them.
Nobody seemed to have any faith in the Jets even covering.
What is the WORST bet this morning? — Yahoo Sportsbook (@YahooSportsbook) December 6, 2020.
As we know, the Jets almost won. They gave up a touchdown in the final seconds for a heartbreaking loss, but that didn’t affect anyone who had the points.
As my colleague Sam Cooper pointed out, the Jets have covered in four of six games despite not winning any. They’re favored to go 0-16 at BetMGM, but the lines have been inflated so much against them, they’ve been offering value for bettors brave enough to take them.
The end of Tennessee-Florida: It’s always rough to lose a bet on a play that had no meaning to the final outcome. It’s even worse when it comes on fourth down at the end of a blowout.
Florida was -17.5 against Tennessee and covering the spread. They forced a fourth-and-10 in the last minute. Then . ouch.
Sports betting winners and losers: Who is NFL's best team against the spread? (It's not the Chiefs)
The Kansas City Chiefs are 14-1, already have the No. 1 seed clinched and are the clear favorites to win a Super Bowl.
That doesn’t mean gamblers like them much.
The Chiefs are just 7-8 against the spread, and sportsbooks have made a nice profit from their weird streak of seven straight games winning outright but not covering.
There’s another team, which is heading to the playoffs with one more win, that has been the champion of bettors this season: the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins are 11-4 against the spread according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing. That’s a remarkable number, and was even better before Miami won but didn’t cover last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Before that, the Dolphins had covered in nine of 10 games.
The Dolphins have beaten expectations all season, and the sportsbooks haven’t really adjusted too much for it. They’re a solid, well-coached team that has been mostly unspectacular, especially on offense. That’s the kind of team that can do well against the spread. Everyone loves betting on the Chiefs because Patrick Mahomes has made them a glamorous team that has an offense everyone loves to say is unstoppable. The spreads are high and even though the Chiefs win just about every week, it has been a long time since they covered.
The Dolphins weren’t expected to be very good this season. Their over/under win total before the season was about 6. But they finished last season strong, added a lot of talent in the offseason and have a good coach in Brian Flores. That’s a great team to bet on through a season and it has paid off. It’s a good lesson to remember for next season.
Even if the 2020 Dolphins don’t beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 17 and they miss the playoffs, they’ll always be remembered fondly by bettors who identified them as a good value early enough to turn a profit backing them.
В© Provided by Yahoo! Sports Miami Dolphins wide receiver Isaiah Ford, left, celebrates with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick after defeating the Las Vegas Raiders. (AP Photo/David Becker)
Here are the winners and losers from the past week in the sports betting world:
WINNERS.
Gallery: NBA Preseason: Killian Hayes, Obi Toppin among rookies to debut Friday (SMG)
As of Monday, a huge 43 percent of the money bet in the MVP market at BetMGM was on Rodgers. That’s an enormous shift, but bettors were quick to react to Rodgers’ late-season surge that pushed him ahead of Mahomes in the race. Until this week, Mahomes was still a big betting favorite to win. A lot of bets came in on Rodgers to win MVP. Rodgers took over as the favorite after a four-touchdown game in the snow in Week 16, and the odds have been shifting his way ever since.
Trae Young and other NBA MVP movers: The NBA season is only a few games old, but already Young has made an impression on MVP voters.
The other interesting move is on Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic. Doncic was the favorite before the season, and he has become an even stronger favorite after a few games.
There is a lot of season to go, but even if you missed betting Young at 80-to-1 he still looks like a fun value.
LOSERS.
NBA favorites: Some of the best teams in the NBA are having trouble covering spreads.
The Los Angeles Lakers are just 2-2 ATS, and lost to the Portland Trail Blazers at home on Monday night. The Milwaukee Bucks are 1-2 against the spread, with a straight-up loss to the New York Knicks. The Denver Nuggets have covered in just one of three games with an upset home loss to the Sacramento Kings in the opener. The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are also 1-2 against the spread.
Which NBA teams have been good to bettors so far this season? There are five undefeated teams against the spread: Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. Other than the Pacers, none of those teams were considered playoff teams heading into the season. If you identified any of those five as underrated coming into the season, you’ve won some bets.
Things should balance out. The best teams will cover plenty of spreads. But early this NBA season, it has not paid to back the preseason favorites.
Competitive bowl games: Here are the point differentials for the bowl games played already: 28, 11, 26, 35, 15, 14, 7, 7, 18, 3. At least it is getting better. Liberty-Coastal Carolina gave us a good game on Saturday night. Most of the rest haven’t been interesting. Bowl season has been defined by blowouts and cancelations.
The good news is there are many games yet to go. Three of the four teams scheduled for Tuesday’s games are ranked. Miami (-1) faces Oklahoma State in the Cheez-It Bowl, and Texas (-7.5) plays Colorado in the Alamo Bowl.
The New Year’s Day games are coming up, and more of the sport’s brand names will be playing. The first portion of bowl season hasn’t been great, but hopefully that evens out the rest of the way.
Sports betting winners and losers: A 10-team parlay worth $35,000 came down to 4 backdoor NFL covers.
It was a week full of backdoor covers in the NFL. One bettor didn’t mind at all.
Over the weekend, a bettor placed $50 on a 10-team parlay at BetMGM. The parlay would win $35,392.50, or about 700-to-1 odds. It was a mix of college basketball and NFL games, and the bettor won all the college basketball games. He mostly took large underdogs:
He needed to go 4-0 on NFL to win the parlay, and that’s not easy. It’s especially not easy when you are in danger of losing each of the four and somehow pull each one out in the final minutes.
Bills -4.5: Not technically a “backdoor cover” but close enough. The Bills led 27-17 in the final minute but Justin Herbert somehow completed a 55-yard desperation pass down to the Bills’ 2. For some reason the Chargers, with no timeouts, ran on their first play after the long pass. That cost them about 17 seconds and gained only a yard. Then from the 1-yard line with just a few seconds left the Chargers threw incomplete twice and Herbert was stopped on fourth down as time expired. If any of those four plays got in the end zone, the parlay loses.
The Buccaneers got a 31-yard touchdown to Mike Evans on fourth-and-3. Still, Tampa Bay needed to keep Kansas City from scoring and get another touchdown itself. They forced a punt and a roughing the passer penalty kept their next drive going. With more than four minutes left Evans scored again and somehow Tampa Bay trailed by just 3 points. The Chiefs got some first downs but never threatened to score, and they ran out the clock on a 27-24 win and a half-point cover.
And with that fourth late NFL cover, any of which could have easily gone the other way, one bettor turned $50 into a $35,392.50 win.
That bettor can’t complain about any of his bad beats for a long, long time.
В© Provided by Yahoo! Sports Mike Evans' two fourth-quarter touchdowns were a big deal in the gambling world. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Here are the winners and losers from the past week in the sports betting world:
WINNERS.
Gonzaga: There shouldn’t be much doubt after just one week of college basketball who the favorite is.
Gonzaga looks fantastic. They beat a good Kansas team 102-90 and then blew out Auburn 90-67. The Bulldogs look very good.
Gallery: Report Card: Handing out grades following Auburn's 42-13 loss to Alabama (SMG)
"We feel we can score on anybody," Gonzaga forward Drew Timme said, via AP. "We've got great coaching. If we execute our offense and move the ball and not get stymied, we feel we can score on every team."
Of course, this being 2020, Gonzaga is dealing with positive COVID-19 tests among players and coaches, which puts their games this week against West Virginia and Baylor in some peril.
NFL favorites: Once again, it was a good week for underdogs. And the sportsbooks.
Most NFL bettors prefer favorites, and there wasn’t good news on Sunday and Monday. Underdogs covered eight of the 12 games during the day Sunday, then we had Seahawks-Eagles on Monday night (more on that in a moment).
“It’s been a rough stretch here for the bettors,” Jeff Stoneback, the director of trading for MGM Resorts, told Yahoo Sports.
LOSERS.
BetMGM said about 90 percent of the tickets and money bet on “Monday Night Football” was on the Seahawks. The line moved from -5 to -6.5. That’s important.
If you stayed up late, you know what happened. The Eagles completed a Hail Mary on a great catch in the end zone with 12 seconds left, then instead of kicking the extra point to cut Seattle’s lead to 7 points, they went for the 2-point conversion. They got it, lost 23-17 and all of a sudden those -6.5 tickets were losers. That includes one bettor who had $500,000 on the Seahawks at -6.5.
It’s a good lesson: Always try to get the best number. Anyone who had Seattle at -5 or -5.5 isn’t sad about the result. Every half-point counts.
Virginia and Villanova hoops: Part of Gonzaga looking like the best team in college basketball already — yes, Baylor fans, we aren’t forgetting you — is that we saw two of the four consensus favorites already go down.
Virginia lost a baffling game to San Francisco as double-digit favorites. Villanova lost a strange one in overtime to a Virginia Tech team that was a 9.5-point underdog.
A week into the season, it already looks like a weird one. Hopefully the NCAA tournament happens as scheduled, because it could be more unpredictable than ever.
Back-to-back bad beats: My colleague Matt Gothard was monitoring the bad-beat scene on Saturday and he had two really rough ones.
You should never lose a bet on a 28-point favorite when a team losing by 30 fires up a 3-pointer that banks in at the buzzer. But, that’s what happened when Southern’s long heave went in against Iowa.
And then right after that, Stanford blocked an extra point that was great for the Cardinal, and terrible for anyone who had them as a 1.5-point favorite.
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